Levi Cowan, a graduate student studying tropical cyclones at Florida State University and obviously one of the brightest young scientists in this country, does some incredible videos on hurricanes. He is on Twitter at @tropicaltidbits and has a website, tropicaltidbits.com. He’s posting a lot of the reconnaissance data on the hurricane as it comes in, so sometimes you know about increases in intensity and changes in direction before the National Hurricane Center officially releases it (and the Weather Channel subsequently reports on it). A lot of the data you are seeing released on TWC is already stale.
Here is his latest video. Hurricane Dorian appears to be an exceptionally dangerous storm for the Bahamas right now and has the potential to be one of the worst storms in Florida history. I am praying that it stays off the coast, but if it doesn’t, Levi has an excellent explainer here on why. I am feeling a little sick watching this, to be honest.
As much as Floridians like to mock the spaghetti models, the amount of time Dorian lingers after hitting the Bahamas and how close other systems allow it to get to the coast (initial conditions for impacting Florida) are subtle differences with tremendous consequences. Please keep Florida in your prayers.
It absolutely blows my mind that Governor DeSantis is not evacuating the coasts right now. The window for South Florida is closing soon, and North Florida will be right behind it. Very bad decision, in my opinion.