Imperial “model” guy responsible for lock downs radically alters estimates after widespread criticism

He never had a working model in the first place. It was all just a bunch of elementary school math and false assumptions. And it destroyed our economy because policymakers in major US population centers are as dumb as he is. And we have a craven, antisocial media machine in this country.

I have been saying for a while now that anyone with a quantitative background could look at what Ferguson did in his “model” and understand the guy is a total charlatan. This one man’s ignorant prediction that 2.2 million in the United States could die if the entire economy was not shut down was responsible for state and local governments enacting worse policies than those in Communist China. It also led to an unprecedented loss of civil liberties in the United States as governors and mayors took objectively unconstitutional actions simply because they thought they could.

After a landslide of criticism from Oxford, Stanford, and others, Ferguson is changing his tune. But he would have been wrong without it. The dire initial conditions he assumed have not happened, so even if you believe the “exponential growth” bullshit, you still have to admit the situation cannot mathematically be that bad. State and local governments destroyed the financial lives of millions of people and cost taxpayers TRILLIONS of dollars over this:

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

Author and former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson broke down the bombshell report via Twitter on Thursday morning (view Twitter thread below).

“This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the [Imperial College] authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths — and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID,” started Berenson. 

“He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,” he wrote.

To put this number in context, there are usually thousands of deaths from the flu each year in the U.K. Here is some information from the University of Oxford on deaths ranging from 600-13,000 per year:

Influenza (flu) is a very common, highly infectious disease caused by a virus. It can be very dangerous, causing serious complications and death, especially for people in risk groups. In rare cases flu can kill people who are otherwise healthy. In the UK it is estimated that an average of 600 people a year die from complications of flu. In some years it is estimated that this can rise to over 10,000 deaths (see for example this UK study from 2013, which estimated over 13,000 deaths resulting from flu in 2008-09). Flu leads to hundreds of thousands of GP visits and tens of thousands of hospital stays a year.

Berenson continued: “Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased — which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize — which in turn implies it is less dangerous.”

“Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within ‘two to three weeks’ — last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary,” the former reporter highlighted.

“One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* — the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work,” stressed Berenson. “Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US — I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.”

Ferguson’s change of tune comes days after Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta criticized the professor’s model.

“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” Gupta said, according to the Financial Times.

Professor Gupta led a team of researchers at Oxford in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.

If her model is accurate, fewer than one in a thousand who’ve been infected with COVID-19 become sick enough to need hospitalization, leaving the vast majority with mild cases or free of symptoms.

In other words, Ferguson’s highly influential initial model was off by orders of magnitude.

I don’t normally wish bad things on anyone, but we are definitely in fall-on-your-sword territory here. At the very least, this man should not have an academic career. I have been saying for a long time now that our state and local governments destroyed our economy, destroyed our education systems, destroyed American daily life over a charlatan. And it has finally come out thus.

Now we have Democratic policymakers and local leaders doubling, tripling, quadrupling down on propaganda that took this guy’s idea and ran with it, trying to scare the public into keeping the panic and collapse coming.

They deserve the permanent contempt of the American people and it’s coming for them. Karma is a bitch.

7 thoughts on “Imperial “model” guy responsible for lock downs radically alters estimates after widespread criticism

  1. This guy is DANGEROUS! I hope he is happy with all his handiwork.

    Larry is working from home these days, so i only get limited computer time. I cannot answer things on my kindle. At best i can only like things. That’s why you don’t see a lot of comments from me at the moment, but you know I agree with you. You have sent out some great posts/articles. Scary stuff that more people need to read and think about, but you know they won’t. Keep up the good work. Sty safe. 🙂

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I had really intended to use this blog for things like gardening and cooking and whatnot, but it’s cathartic to be able to unload on the finance and economics stuff and everything that influences it. I have learned so much about how diseases are managed these days.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. I think we know what Newsom will say in each of the possible scenarios. If there are just a few deaths, “I had the courage to make tough decisions to save the world.” If there is a general mortality, “I had the courage to make the tough decisions to keep it from getting worse.”

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Thank you for your blog Kristi, one sane person in the world. This pisses me off so much right now. Sucks that I am about to be out of a job, sell my home in a week and we have a stay at home order in Colorado…oh and they will arrest and fine me for leaving my home. Socialism much.

    Liked by 1 person

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