Some humor when everything is binary

Look, this is really easy:

People who are buying stocks lately fall into several camps: (1) they think Trump is going to fire Fauci and re-open the economy with gusto, which very well may happen, (2) they think the Federal Reserve has reduced cash to trash with its interventions, which is also true, and/or (3) they think if the shutdown persists as long as the innumerate idiots in public health suggest, the real economy will crash so fucking hard that the Federal Reserve will start buying equities in the open market, which also very well may happen, and they will be temporarily rewarded for front-running the Fed.

The latter was the big lesson from market interventions in the 2008 Financial Crisis – it is very, very easy to get filthy rich buying up what you think the Fed will be buying in a crisis. Consider the fact that the Fed has recently been buying up junk bonds, bailing out private equity billionaires in the process:

Right now, the situation for our economy is totally binary. If the shutdowns are ended, we might return, not to normalcy, but to something materially less than the Second Great Depression. But if the shutdowns persist through summer, we are headed into a Second Great Depression where everything under the sun becomes worthless.

Everyone I talk to has either taken the red pill or the blue pill. There’s not much else to do right now but laugh at the people living in two completely separate realities. Only one is correct though, and it’s not going to be the people who have turned Fauci into their political god.

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