Local polling suggests Biden has lost Miami Latinos to Trump

Following up on the topic of how bad national corporate media polling is now, a new poll from the Miami Herald suggests Trump has a larger share of Miami’s Latinos than Biden and that Biden is dramatically under-performing Clinton in what has historically been a major Democratic stronghold. That directly contradicts national pollsters that say Biden has been nursing a huge lead in the state, though that has been dwindling in the past two weeks.

This is a pretty big deal, because it is nearly impossible to be elected president, period, without winning Florida. And the only way a Democrat can win Florida is by running up the score in Miami-Dade bigtime. If Biden can’t do that, he’s toast.

My personal take on this is that the over three months of riots by “socialist” groups nationally, including in Miami-Dade, has royally turned off Latino voters, many of whom fled to the US from socialist regimes across generations. (I have told this story on the blog before, but in South Florida, many gun stores were totally bought out of inventory months ago. Like all guns and ammo bought out, totally empty shelves. People were driving hours to North Florida to buy firearms. These are not people who want to hear about defunding the police and letting Beto grab their home security system. But that is the message the left is relentlessly pushing these days, and they have no time left in this election cycle to try to massage or correct that narrative.)

Many of these folks also work in the hospitality industry, which has been brutalized by the forever-lockdown crowd on the left. I have eaten in many Latin American restaurants in South Florida in recent weeks as we are preparing to move down there. Not a single one of them had people in masks. It’s a bizarre proxy, I know, but I do think it communicates how they feel about all this nonsense. Biden running his mask porn commercials in South Florida is probably not having the effect his overpaid consultants think. They just see a government overlord who wants to put their family out of business, and they are acutely aware of how that game ends. And their success has been exceptionally hard-won.

Also, I would not discount the effect that Trump choosing to be a full-time resident of South Florida might have. Somehow I have not seen anyone discuss that before. He has the ability to become a local hero for Cubans and Venezuelans, among others.

From the Miami Herald:

Four years after getting trounced in Miami-Dade County by Hillary Clinton, President Donald Trump has increased his odds of victory in his must-win home state on Nov. 3 by improving his standing in Florida’s most populous county, according to a poll by Bendixen & Amandi International and the Miami Herald.

The poll of 500 likely Miami-Dade voters, released Tuesday, found Trump far behind Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden 38% to 55% in Miami-Dade, where Democrats typically need to run up the score in order to compete in statewide races.

That 17-point deficit is well outside the poll’s 4.4 percentage point margin of error. But Trump doesn’t need to win Miami-Dade. He just needs to do better in the Democratic-leaning county to offset possible losses in other parts of Florida.

In 2016, he lost Miami-Dade to Hillary Clinton by 30 points — about 290,000 votes — but won the state by 1.2% of the total vote.

“If you’re the Biden campaign, looking at these numbers, I think there’s reason for pause,” said Fernand Amandi, the Miami-based pollster and Democratic strategist behind the poll. “If Biden under-performs in what should be one of his strongest counties — and is certainly the largest county for Democratic votes in the state of Florida — it might imperil his chances of winning Florida unless there is a massive white voter exodus from Trump in other parts of the state.”

The Bendixen & Amandi poll — conducted Sept. 1 to Sept. 4 — wasn’t all bad news for the former vice president. Biden led Trump, 51% to 33% among Miami-Dade County’s independent voters and 48% to 44% among white voters. Biden was also winning 16% of Republicans.

But the poll found the former vice president splitting Hispanic voters with Trump, with Trump at 47% and Biden at 46%. Those numbers — based on smaller polling subsets with larger margins of error— are driven by Trump’s increased support amongconservative leaning Cuban-Americans, who supported Trump over Biden in the poll by a crushing 38 points. Just eight years ago, those voters roughly split their votes between Republican nominee Mitt Romney and former President Barack Obama.

“Democrats are potentially leaving Cuban votes on the table that they won in the past, which could very well make a difference in a state as tight as Florida,” said Amandi, whose firm produced Spanish-language ads for the 2012 Obama campaign.

The poll comes as Trump and Biden head into the final stretch to win Florida, where most public statewide polls show Biden with a small lead.

Actually living in Florida, I just do not see much Biden support here. Not even in South Florida. Sure, Florida has about 1,000 people moving in a day, and that might skew things, especially to the extent that they are coming down from the north. But I do not think it is a given that people leaving a blue state want to vote for the people who are running on jacking up taxes, even if they do mimic some of that dysfunction in local politics at times. I also don’t think it is a given most of those people will be eligible to vote here. I could be wrong, but I think Florida is thoroughly Trump country now. Even some of the traditionally blue areas.

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