US expects Russia to invade Ukraine next week (or earlier)

Some awfully specific intelligence here:

Most major countries are imploring their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately.

Meanwhile, oil futures are going through the roof. It’s impossible to imagine a scenario where the first land war in Europe in 80 years does not aggravate inflation that is already off the charts.

2 thoughts on “US expects Russia to invade Ukraine next week (or earlier)

    1. This is misinformation.

      I do not like the Biden administration one bit, but MAGA folks are so objectively full of it on so much of this stuff, that I am honestly getting to the point of dropping my Republican registration not to be personally associated with the derp and conspiratorial doom anymore.

      I have zero love for the Biden administration, but they never said that Russia definitively planned to invade on the 16th – that came from the media, citing anonymous sources, and was quickly dismissed as unverified by the administration (and by the intel community, who noted that you can still see trains of weaponry headed to the border). The Biden administration threw out many different scenarios and refused to commit to any one of them. But obviously all of the western intelligence agencies think this situation is bad, as they all dumped their embassies and started destroying documents. When the oligarchs are fleeing Ukraine, you also know something is up. Putin has been telling people that he’s returning troops from the border, but you can see on satellite images that he’s just rearranging battalions on the border. Meanwhile, the number of troops stationed there has climbed to 150,000. It is not uncommon for him to play games like this – he did the same nonsense in Crimea.

      The whole “February 16th at 3 am” bit did not come from the intelligence agencies, it came from two British tabloids, the Daily Mirror and the Sun – the equivalent of the government telling foreign affairs secrets to the National Inquirer – and amplified by Edward Snowden, whom Putin is keeping as a pet, because he’s totally not a Russian operative (lol). Yet the whole MAGA crowd gathered on social media last night to stay up till 3 am to see if the “intelligence” was right, because they are so immersed in the substance of what is happening with Ukraine that they that they think the Daily Mirror is a reliable source of information. It’s absolutely pathetic.

      One thing I have learned from following Ukraine intensely is that conservatives have been totally booted from the managerial class of the military (not just political appointees). We still have conservative grunt culture, but the people working in management, the people working in intel, the people running defense contractors, have all moved left. This is an industry trend, much like what happened in law and education. After weeks of seeing MAGA folks marinating in disinformation and propaganda, I actually understand why the educated folks are vocally distancing themselves from the right. There is zero substance, zero basic grip on reality, in discussions of military affairs on the right now. Most of these folks know jack about world affairs, even conflicts that took place within this decade, but are instead obsessed with domestic culture wars. Which is incredible, since this field was dominated by conservatives for much of my adult life.


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